Lisbon is the most decisive electoral district, electing 48 deputies. If we include the Setúbal district, which elects 19 deputies, the Lisbon Metropolitan Area (AML) is responsible for almost one-third of the Parliament’s deputies. Setúbal gained one more deputy in these elections compared to the previous ones. This mandate was lost by the electoral district of Viana do Castelo, according to the official distribution map.
However, Lisbon has been losing influence: in 1991, it elected 50 deputies. Setúbal elected 16 at that time and now elects 19. Portugal as a whole seems to have shifted towards the sea in electoral terms. The inland districts are losing more deputies over time, in line with the population decrease, while the coastal districts are gaining.
Votes will determine the composition of the Assembly of the Republic and the balance of power among various parties in the new Parliament. Much has been said about left-wing, right-wing, and even central alliance possibilities, and the prospects for governability are diverse. Indeed, more than the ideas of each party for the country, this subject has dominated debates, taking up airtime and newspaper pages, where political commentators make predictions and outline scenarios.
In the final analysis, it is the Portuguese people who will decide with their votes on March 10.
Who can vote? How are the deputies of the Assembly elected, how is the government formed, and what are its functions? A Mensagem has prepared a practical guide to answer these and many other questions about the electoral process, democratic procedures, and the potential future scenarios that the country faces after the elections.
Why elections again?
On January 30 2022, in elections called early due to the rejection of the State budget that led to the dissolution of the Parliament and the calling of new elections, the PS (Socialist Party) obtained an absolute majority. The expectation was to create conditions for governmental stability in the following four years. However, this did not happen. After several government crises, the XXIII government fell following a judicial investigation related to the processes of the Sines Data Center, Lithium, and especially a paragraph in a press release from the Attorney General’s Office, which announced the opening of an inquiry into Prime Minister António Costa within the scope of Operation Influencer. António Costa resigned on November 7, 2023, stating that he did not have the conditions to remain in office. There were suspicions of influence trafficking involving Chief of Staff Vítor Escária, Minister of Infrastructure João Galamba, and friend Diogo Lacerda Machado.
The President of the Republic accepted the resignation, officially confirmed the government’s resignation a month later, and on January 15 2024, dissolved the Assembly of the Republic, calling for early elections on March 10, the second in four years, both during the second and final term of Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa.
This marked the ninth time that this mechanism, granted to the President by the Constitution of the Republic, was activated in the history of Portuguese democracy.
Thus, the early legislative elections of 2024 are approaching. On March 10, Portugal returns to the polls, 46 days before the revolution’s 50th anniversary of April 25 1974.
This text is an adaptation of the original, published for the early legislative elections of 2022.
What is being voted on in these elections?
In legislative elections, voters cast their ballots for the Assembly of the Republic or Parliament. A total of 230 deputies are elected and voted on by various electoral districts. There is only one ballot and one choice to make (in contrast, for example, to local elections where multiple bodies are elected simultaneously).
Citizens vote for political parties or party coalitions whose ideas, programs, and list members they want to see represented in Parliament.
Independent candidates can join party lists and be elected, but independent lists cannot run.
The Prime Minister and the government are chosen based on the vote for the Assembly of the Republic — not through direct voting. What matters for this choice is the number of deputies each party has and the balance of political forces in the parliament.
How are the Prime Minister and the Government chosen?
The Prime Minister is appointed by the President of the Republic to form a government shortly after the elections, taking into account the election results and consulting with all parties with parliamentary representation. Normally, the party with the highest representation in Parliament forms the government, but what truly matters is the stability of a parliamentary majority. In other words, with an absolute majority (50% plus one), there is no doubt or room for manoeuvre: the party with the most votes forms a majority government. However, with a relative majority, parties are free to negotiate with others to achieve governability – everything depends on the President’s acceptance.
The only time in the history of democracy, when a government was formed by a party other than the most-voted party, occurred in the 2015 legislative elections: a left-wing parliamentary majority committed to supporting a government led by the second most-voted party. It was under António Costa of the PS, supported by the Bloco de Esquerda and the CDU, and it lasted for an entire legislative term. There had been several minority governments before, but only one lasted four years – the first government led by António Guterres, between 1995 and 1999.
How are deputies elected to the Assembly of the Republic?
For the Assembly of the Republic, 230 deputies are elected through geographical electoral districts, but not individually. In the presidential elections, the candidate with the most votes nationwide wins. In the legislative elections, citizens vote for candidates on the party lists in their electoral district.
The number of deputies each district elects is proportional to its number of voters: the more voters a district has, the more deputies it elects to Parliament — and the more political forces it represents. In this regard, Lisbon, being the most populous electoral district, takes the lead, electing 48 deputies. Five electoral districts elect 60% of the deputies: Aveiro, Braga, Porto, Setúbal, and Lisbon.
There are 22 electoral districts, one for each of the 18 districts, two for the Autonomous Regions of Madeira and the Azores, and two for Portuguese voters residing abroad, “within Europe” and “outside Europe.”
The conversion of votes into seats is done through the D’Hondt method, in a proportional representation system. This means that a vote in Lisbon is worth less than a vote in a less populated area.
Deputies are elected for four-year terms. Once elected, they no longer represent their electoral district but represent citizens from across the country.
What are the powers of the elected bodies?
The Assembly of the Republic corresponds in Portugal to the legislative power, and the government, composed of the Prime Minister, ministers, and secretaries of state, corresponds to the executive power.
The Parliament has the power to legislate, meaning it can propose, approve, or reject laws and measures, and it has exclusive competence to legislate on a range of matters. It is instrumental in forming the Government and has the function of overseeing it. It is the most representative central power organ of the citizens.
The Government exercises political, legislative, and administrative functions, directs the general policy of the country, and manages the Public Administration and State affairs. It proposes laws to Parliament and executes the laws and measures approved by it. It proposes the State Budget, which requires approval from a parliamentary majority to be implemented.
Who can vote?
Those eligible to vote in the elections are:
- Portuguese citizens aged 18 or older, as of the election date, whether within the national territory or abroad;
- Brazilian citizens residing in Portugal, holding a citizen card or identity card or having the Status of Equality of Political Rights.
For national citizens, voter registration occurs automatically when they turn 17, and no additional procedures are required.
Can residents who are foreign nationals also vote? And what about Portuguese citizens living abroad?
Unlike municipal elections, where the right to vote is extended to foreign residents in a variety of situations (originating from the European Union and the United Kingdom with residence before Brexit, Brazil and Cape Verde with legal residence in Portugal for more than two years, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Iceland, Norway, New Zealand, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela with legal residence for more than three years), in elections for the Assembly of the Republic, only Brazilian citizens holding the Status of Equality of Political Rights can vote.
As for national citizens residing abroad, they can vote either in person or by postal vote. To vote in person, they had to choose this option with their respective registration commission (consulate, embassy, or consular office) by the date set for each electoral event, which in this case was January 15.
Those who opted for in-person voting should go to their respective polling stations on March 9 and 10.
In the case of postal voting, voters receive the ballot paper at the address indicated in the registration register, by the fastest registered postal service. The ballot paper is accompanied by two envelopes, one green and one white. The voter marks the voting option with a cross, folds the ballot paper in four, places it inside the green envelope (without any indications or documents), and seals it. The voter then inserts the green envelope into the white envelope, along with a copy of an identification document, and after sealing, sends it by mail before the election day, March 10. Postage is free.
How to know where to vote?
To find out which polling station corresponds to you, you can check your registration location online (here) or send a free SMS to the number 3838, indicating your citizen card number and date of birth.
On the election day itself, the first and last names will also be indicated in the respective registration location’s electoral registers.
The message to 3838 should have the following format: “RE (space) ID/BI number (space) date of birth=yyyymmdd.” Example: “RE 7424071 19820803.”
What documents are required to vote?
To vote, simply present your citizen card. The old Voter ID card is no longer necessary, and the voter number is also not required.
If you don’t have a citizen card, perhaps due to loss, you have other identification options:
- You can present a document with an up-to-date photograph that is commonly used for identification (for example, a passport or driver’s license).
- You can also ask two voters to attest, under the commitment of honour, your identity, or you can be unanimously recognized by the polling station. In these cases, it’s advisable to retrieve your identification number from the Parish Council services, if you don’t know it.
What parties are on the ballot? What do they stand for?
Currently, there are eight parties with parliamentary representation in the Assembly of the Republic [see the links for the electoral programs of each one and the coalitions through which they are running in these elections]:
The parties currently with parliamentary representation in the Assembly of the Republic are:
- Coligação Democrática Unitária (CDU) [Democratic Unity Coalition] –
Partido Comunista Português (PCP) [Portuguese Communist Party], running in the legislative elections in coalition with Partido Ecologista Os Verdes (PEV) [Ecologist Party The Greens]. - Aliança Democrática (AD) –Partido Social Democrata (PSD) [Social Democratic Party], running in these legislative elections in coalition with Partido do Centro Democrático e Social – Partido Popular (CDS-PP) [Social Democratic Party – People’s Party] and Partido Popular Monárquico (PPM) [Monarchist People’s Party]
- Bloco de Esquerda (BE)
- Iniciativa Liberal (IL)
- Partido Socialista (PS) [Socialist Party]
- Chega!
- Livre
- Partido Pessoas-Animais-Natureza (PAN)
For these elections, all parties with parliamentary representation are running in all electoral districts. These include Alternativa Democrática Nacional (ADN), Reagir.Incluir.Reciclar (RIR), and Ergue-te.
Alternativa 21 (Movimento Partido da Terra + Aliança) is running in all electoral districts except for Castelo Branco, Porto, Vila Real, and the Azores.
Partido Trabalhista Português (PTP) [no online website] is only running in Lisbon, Setúbal, and Madeira.
Juntos pelo Povo (JPP) is only running in Braga, Coimbra, Faro, Lisbon, Porto, Setúbal, Madeira, the Azores, Europe, and Outside Europe.
Nova Direita is running in all electoral districts except for Madeira and the Azores.
Volt Portugal is running in all electoral districts except for Bragança.
PCTP-MRPP is running in Aveiro, Beja, Braga, Castelo Branco, Portalegre, Porto, Setúbal, and Europe.
Nós, Cidadãos! is only running in Braga, Porto, Madeira, Europe, and Outside Europe.
Movimento Alternativa Socialista (MAS) submitted a candidacy in Lisbon and is listed on provisional ballot papers, but internal disputes led to a court case, and the Lisbon District Court decided not to admit the party’s candidacy for this electoral district.
In the Madeira district, PPM, which is part of the Aliança Democrática (AD) in the rest of Portugal, is running independently. PSD and CDS-PP maintain their coalition, referred to here as Madeira Primeiro.
To find out the parties or coalitions running in Lisbon and all electoral districts in the country, please refer to the website of the National Electoral Commission here, where you can find the ballot papers for all electoral districts. You can also click on each party listed above to view their electoral programs.
What are the possible post-electoral scenarios?
The Portuguese people will express themselves through the vote on March 10, deciding the election of the 230 deputies who will occupy seats in the Assembly of the Republic. The government solution will emerge from this balance of power. Election night promises to be eventful, and the following days as well.
The topic of possible post-electoral scenarios has dominated pre-campaign debates: who will support whom, possible post-electoral agreements, and each party’s red lines.
Both the PS (Socialist Party) and AD (Social Democratic Party + CDS-PP + PPM coalition) are aiming for a majority. If this does not materialize, it is not entirely clear which doors are open and which are definitively closed.
On the left, the clarity is greater: the parties to the left of the PS have shown openness to, under certain conditions, support a PS government.
The PS also admits to not blocking a minority PSD government. However, there have been hints that a “geringonça 2.0” (a left-wing coalition similar to the one formed in the previous government) is on the table.
Luís Montenegro, on the other hand, has avoided discussing post-electoral alliances, although he has made it clear that he will not form alliances with Chega!. This party, as well as the Iniciativa Liberal, have positioned themselves to be part of a right-wing government solution.
PAN seems ready to negotiate, although negotiations on the right appear more challenging due to red lines related to environmental and animal welfare policies raised by CDS-PP and PPM.
I still have doubts. Where can I get information?
The CNE website, the voter portal, and parlamento.pt provide more detailed information about the electoral process and the powers of various sovereign bodies in Portugal.
On March 10, cast your vote.
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